Why does Pakistan's former Prime Minister’s imprisonment matter beyond Pakistan?

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How does a man sitting in jail pose a greater threat to Pakistan’s government than rising terrorism, economic crisis or even a brief war with India? This is a question at the heart of Pakistan’s current political situation. To understand why Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s imprisonment matters, we must first understand Pakistan itself.

Pakistan is a country that has maintained long-standing relations with the world’s contemporary major powers, making it more than just a strategic player. Its relations with the United States have seen ups and downs over the years, but Pakistan remains strategically important to Washington. The country shares a 600 kilometer border with China, USA’s primary competitor, which keeps it firmly on the US radar. Recently, under the regime of Donald Trump, the USA has expressed growing interests in Pakistan’s mineral reserves located in its biggest province, Balochistan. In 2025, Pakistan signed a minerals deal with a US firm involving $500M in investment (‘Strategic handshake’: How Pakistan is wooing Trump with critical minerals | Mining News | Al Jazeera). China and Pakistan, meanwhile, have remained “iron brothers” throughout the history of Pakistan, with both countries collaborating across military, economic and infrastructure projects. This partnership has only grown through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While the relationship with Russia still carries some historical tension, especially after the Cold War, Moscow sees value in engaging with Pakistan as global power dynamics shift.

What this means is simple: Pakistan sits at the intersection of global superpower’s interests, which makes its internal political stability a matter of international importance.

A World Cup winning captain and one of cricket's greatest all-rounders, Imran Khan and his name resonates far beyond the sporting world. Cricketer-turned-politician, Khan’s career has been, to say the least, eventful. With his celebrity status and natural charisma, Imran Khan is undoubtedly the most popular person of Pakistan, and has been for quite some time. His widespread popularity and the fact that he had grown into a prominent, well-known politician made him an attractive figure for Pakistan’s military establishment, which backed him in the 2018 general elections that brought him to power as Prime Minister.

Before we dive into the core of this article, Pakistan’s unique political landscape must be briefly mapped out. For four decades, two major parties, Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), have alternated power until Khan’s party broke through. Yet, one pattern has remained constant: every government that has come to power has done so through the military establishment's backing, and every government has ultimately been removed by the same establishment. For a deeper exploration of the military's role in Pakistani politics, consult the article “A Historical Trail of Pakistan’s Powerful Military Enterprise” by Ayesha Jehangir (Explainer: A historical trail of Pakistan’s powerful military enterprise) or Ayesha Siddiqa’s book Military INC.Since coming into power, Imran Khan and his party have undoubtedly become popular, even more than the PML-N and the PPP.

Over the course of his tenure as Prime Minister and beyond, the relationship between Khan and the establishment deteriorated dramatically. In his early years in office, Khan openly celebrated the mutual understanding. As the BBC reported in 2022, “After coming to power, Mr Khan, by contrast, proudly proclaimed he and the army were on ‘one page’ when it came to policy decisions.’ (Imran Khan: What led to charismatic Pakistan PM's downfall). Fast forward to late 2025, when it has been more than 3 years in captivity, an X post made on Imran Khan’s account labelled the current military chief of Pakistan, General Asim Munir, a “mentally unstable person”. The contrast between these two moments captures the complete breakdown of what once was a mutually beneficial alliance.

Mr. Khan was first arrested on May 9, 2023, on apparent corruption charges, a typical and historical move conducted by the establishment to oust a government. Following his arrest, supporters of Khan stormed the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Military in Rawalpindi and attacked the residence of the CORPS Commander in Lahore as well (Imran Khan: Deadly violence in Pakistan as ex-PM charged with corruption). These unprecedented attacks on military installations became known as the May 9 riots and were later declared as a ‘Black Day’ by Pakistan’s incumbent government.

Following his bail granted by the Islamabad High Court, Khan was arrested again on 5 August, 2023, on fresh corruption charges related to the illegal sale of state gifts received during his time in power. He was sentenced to 14 years in prison, and has been in jail continuously since then, facing numerous additional charges that he and his supporters claim are politically motivated (Pakistan: Imran Khan sentenced to 14 years in corruption case).

A key additional charge among other charges is the Cipher Case. This is a relatively important case as it involves Imran Khan being charged for making public a classified message between Pakistan’s embassy in the USA and the US government. Khan alleged that the cipher proved that the USA had pressured the military establishment to remove Imran Khan’s government, which Khan claimed was due to his visit to Russia shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war (What is the cypher case that led to jail term for Pakistan’s Imran Khan?). However, both the USA and Pakistan’s military denied his “conspiracy allegations." Subsequently, Khan was dropped of this charge to avoid building any further complications between two nations.

Despite his imprisonment and being barred from holding position as chairman of his party, Imran Khan has continued to orchestrate political moves to strengthen his anti-military narrative through limited meetings held with visiting family members (notably his sisters) and other party members. However, the establishment has made attempts to ensure that these meetings are kept to a minimum to weaken his narrative. This has led to numerous protests outside his jail premises and the United Nations has also raised concerns regarding Khan’s treatment in jail, noting that he is kept in solitary confinement for 23 hours a day with visits from lawyers and family “frequently interrupted or ended prematurely.” (Pakistan: Imran Khan’s solitary confinement and inhumane detention conditions must end, UN expert says | OHCHR).

The recent conflict between Pakistan and India in May 2025 should have marked a turning point. Despite the brief but intense military confrontation, Imran Khan remained at the centre of Pakistan's political discourse. The four-day conflict saw numerous cross-border strikes both through land and in air. Pakistan claimed downing 6 Indian jets, with India admitting losses without specifying a number (Indian military chief acknowledges loss of fighter jets in May conflict with Pakistan | CNN). President Trump has taken credit on countless occasions of arranging a ceasefire between the two countries. However, even as Pakistan celebrated what it viewed as a historical military victory, the domestic political spotlight remained on Imran Khan’s imprisonment and its implications for Pakistan’s future.

Imran Khan clearly represents a challenge to the establishment’s authority. Multiple measures have been taken to curtail his influence: he has been stripped of his party chairmanship, barred from holding public office for ten years, and has his family visits in jail severely restricted. However, Khan has himself invited the establishment for talks, though he insisted such talks be ‘conditional’, demanding transparent elections and dropping of charges held against his supporters (Jailed Pakistan ex-PM Imran Khan proposes ‘conditional’ talks with military). Rather than outright refusal to negotiate, Khan appears to be navigating between maintaining his anti-military stance publicly and keeping communication channels open. However, no deal has been finalised yet, and with every passing day, the relationship seems to worsen.

Other than the political instability it has caused in Pakistan, Khan’s imprisonment extends beyond Pakistan’s borders. With militant violence reaching decade-high levels, particularly in Balochistan, the ongoing political crisis diverts military and financial resources away from counterterrorism efforts. This poses a serious threat to regional security and raises concerns globally, considering the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people.

It is also important to note here that Balochistan is the same province that holds vast mineral reserves in which a US firm has invested $500 million (‘Strategic handshake’: How Pakistan is wooing Trump with critical minerals | Mining News | Al Jazeera). Along with the USA, China also holds substantial interests in this province. Other than playing a major part in constructing the Gwadar Port under the CPEC initiative, China plans to improve infrastructure projects around Gwadar itself, including plans for an international airport, water supply systems and special economic zones (China’s super link to Gwadar Port). However, many promised projects remain incomplete largely due to the poor security situation in this province fueled by militant violence.

While counterterrorism in Balochistan should logically be a top priority for Pakistan’s military, the establishment faces mounting pressure from major international organizations, as mentioned before, the UN, over Khan’s imprisonment (Pakistan: Imran Khan’s solitary confinement and inhumane detention conditions must end, UN expert says | OHCHR). This scrutiny comes at a time when Pakistan seeks renewed engagement with Western governments and financial institutions such as the IMF, making Imran Khan’s imprisonment not just a domestic issue but one with significant diplomatic and economic complications.

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